posted by [identity profile] atreic.livejournal.com at 12:30pm on 20/11/2013
> I know nothing about monte carlo - is there a dummy's guide to what it is
> and why it's not exact?

What I meant by a Monte Carlo approach is a random approach. Pete's
program actually modelled the problem as if for real - it chose a
bunch of Octonauts _at random_, checked whether they included one of
each of the five desired kinds, and then did that over and over again
in a loop and tracked what proportion of the trials were successful.

So it's inexact simply because it depends on randomness - if he'd been
really unlucky, his program might have just happened to get one of
every kind of Octonaut in every trial by sheer luck, or get none of
them on any occasion. The best you can say about the accuracy of the
Monte Carlo approach is that there's a _high probability_ of the
experimental result being near to the exact value, and it clusters
more closely the more trials you do.

(But its great virtue is that if you can live with that uncertainty in
the output, it's able to model problems of arbitrary complexity, long
after it becomes intractable to do the maths analytically or to
iterate over absolutely all possibilities!)

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