posted by [identity profile] atreic.livejournal.com at 01:44pm on 19/11/2013
OK, it turns out you can do this in an excel spreadsheet (you just calculate P(1,0) and P(1,1) and then stick in the formula for the recursion.

P(10,5) is a miserable 16% (although you'll have a 44% chance of having that oh-so-frustrating 4)

To actually get P(N,5) > 0.90, you need to order 30 Octonauts.

On the other hand, a pile of 30 Octonauts would be great :-)

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